What are the odds I’ll die on Everest?
I thought I would answer a question that might be on some people’s minds. I have been asked this question several times, and while mostly people say it jokingly, not expecting a real answer, I realize that it is a legitimate question. And I realize they do mean it, as “a lot of truth is said in jest”. Believe it or not, such a question does not bother me; I realize that what I’m going to do is potentially dangerous, and I have accepted whatever that risk may be. But I also know that it’s not that great of a risk.
The easiest way to answer that question is to check Wikipedia’s article “Eight-thousander”, which lists all 14 of the world’s peaks above 8000m, and gives some stats on them. Taking a quick look at Everest shows that since 1990, the death rate has been 4.4%. So, that means there’s more than 95% chance that I’ll be coming back, right? 🙂 That’s pretty good odds!
But actually it’s not quite that easy. Those numbers are out of date (Everest now has over 4500 summits by over 2800 different people), plus, for lack of data, they take the death rate as Deaths/Successful Summit, rather than Deaths/Attempt. Luckily, there is a database out there that is more up to date and more complete, it’s called the Himalayan Database, and it’s the archives of Elizabeth Hawley, a journalist that traveled to Kathmandu in 1960 and decided to stay there for good!
Anyways, depending on what time range you pick, the values of course differ, but if you take the last 20 years like Wikipedia does (1990-2009), or the last ten years (2000 – 2009), the death rate on Everest per person that showed up to climb above base camp is in the 1.5% range. For example, in 2009 there were 5 fatalities, a German, a Czech, a Chinese man, and two Nepali Sherpas. And there was almost 400 people with permits to climb above base camp.
I would like to think those odds are reasonable. I don’t have any stats for what is the likelihood someone will die in a car accident, or from a certain disease, so it’s hard to compare. But I definitely don’t feel that my life is at stake with every step I take. At the same time, on Everest there are no guarantees. A bad year with weather might mean more people don’t come home; good weather might mean more make the summit. Although the odds are in everyone’s favor, someone has to make up that 1.5%. Is that acceptable? That becomes a personal decision for everyone… And what about other effects, such as losing digits due to frostbite?
Anyways, that’s all I’ll dwell on this topic. It’s not something I focus on, but it is something I am aware of, and I think most people would be surprised at how good those odds are. Obviously the most newsworthy trips up Everest are the ones where someone doesn’t come home, so that’s what people tend to hear and that’s what they tend to associate with the mountain.